Friday, 5 April 2013

Zak Mir Interviews Vince Stanzione Part 4

Zak Mir: The impression given in the media is that you are something of a millionaire recluse who was successful in the business world and then came to trade the markets. Why do you want to actually help others make money — shouldn’t people find out for themselves as you did?

Vince Stanzione: My first business was set up at the age of 12 — selling computer games on tape. My dad was a hairdresser and wanted me to take over the business (looking at my own hair — no way!), and so I got a job in FX as a junior in 1985 after I watched a program on BBC2, it’s here on the net — I then got wiped out in the 1987 crash and started the car phone businesses. Then I decided to have another go at investing in 1990/1991 (when I had money) and bought penny shares such as Next at 11p via an entity then known
as Sharelink. I opened my first IG index account in 1990 and I still have the account today (it’s a very
short account number!). But I learnt from others such as Jess Livermore, Jim Rogers and Nick
Darvas, so why not pass my skills on? But you’re right, traders must make their own mistakes, it’s part of growing up in the markets.

Zak Mir: Do you have a macro view on the UK / Western Economy, and is it as grim as the 20 year Japanese Zombie economic scenario that many people fear? Do you have any strong views on Gold, and especially equities now that they are back at multi year highs?

Vince Stanzione: I believe we are in a glorious time, the US economy will power ahead and the Dow could easily hit 20,000 or 30,000+ in the next 10 to 15 years. The new shale energy and biotech/healthcare discoveries are underestimated. I liked gold and platinum 10 years or so ago, but sold it all a few years ago bar a few Canadian Maple leafs. I don’t own gold now as I think you can make more elsewhere. Also I don’t buy that gold is an inflation hedge, so are stocks — you would have made more in McDonalds the last 20 years than gold. I do still own some palladium
Europe is worrying, however, the demographics are very bad — too many older people being supported by less and less youth. Turkey though is the outlier as it has good demographics.

Zak Mir: So you think issues such as the banking sector, the Eurozone and a possible bubble in China
will be resolved successfully? Arguably, the U.S. got us into the financial crisis in the first place via Sub Prime, and has kept us, economically, down with the Fiscal Cliff — an issue which is still bubbling under the surface?

Vince Stanzione: Well if you read certain media, the world is always ending, so far the world has not (in fact wasn’t it supposed to on Dec 12th last year?!) and if it does then you have nothing to worry about! But seriously, humans are very resourceful and adaptive, that is why we don’t use a typewriter or travel by horse and cart anymore. The times I have read that oil is going to run out, yet truth is we have plenty and cars are far more economical.

Zak Mir: Here in the UK we have the possibility of the Scots leaving and the UK itself leaving the EU in 2017. Would you not be particularly bearish regarding sterling and also the bubble in Central
London real estate? This, along with the regulatory issues in the City of London, give the impression
that Zone 1 London may no longer be the “Monaco” style safe haven it used to be?

Vince Stanzione: Well a weaker sterling makes London property look cheaper, especially if you’re from Norway or Canada. Markets normally overshoot up and down be it property, fine wines, art or classic cars, but then buyers and sellers regroup and prices adjust, basic demand and supply dynamics reassert.
It is hard to predict if the UK would leave the EU, but I don’t see the UK turning in to some Third World country. The UK is very respected in many fields such as biotech, fashion & design, television, music & film, tourism to name a few, and these areas can bring a lot of money into the UK.

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